Bayesian Probability for Babies is a colorfully simple introduction to the basic principles of probability.
If you took a bite out of a cookie and that bite has no candy in it, what is the probability that bite came from a candy cookie or a cookie with no candy? You and baby will find out the probability and discover it through different types of distribution.
Yet another book of simple explanations of complex ideas for your future genius!
Bayesian probability is an interpretation of the concept of probability , in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of propositional logic that enables reasoning with hypotheses, that is to say, with propositions whose truth or falsity is unknown.
In the Bayesian view, a probability is assigned to a hypothesis, whereas under frequentist inference , a hypothesis is typically tested without being assigned a probability. Bayesian probability belongs to the category of evidential probabilities; to evaluate the probability of a hypothesis, the Bayesian probabilist specifies a prior probability . This, in turn, is then updated to a posterior probability in the light of new, relevant data (evidence).
The Bayesian interpretation provides a standard set of procedures and formulae to perform this calculation. The term Bayesian derives from the 18th century mathematician and theologian Thomas Bayes , who provided the first mathematical treatment of a non-trivial problem of statistical data analysis using what is now known as Bayesian inference. Mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace pioneered and popularized what is now called Bayesian probability.